2025年FOMC票委立场分析

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original wex7ce EI V1ajero 2825年6月28日 23:57 中国垂港 美联储的结构与决策机制 美国联邦储备系统(The Federal Reserve Systen),通常笛称为“美联情(the Fed)”,是美国的中央银行。其结构设计旨在平衡国家与地方、公共与私营部门的利益,并 确保货币政策决策在一定程度上独立于短期的政治压力。整个系统主要由三个关键实体构 成:联邦储备委员会(BoardofGovernors)、12家联邦储备银行(Reserve Banks)以及联郑公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee,FOMC)2。 联邦铺备委员会(Board of Governors): 位于华盛顿特区,是美联储系统的核心管理机构5。它由七名*理事(governors)“组成,这些理 事由美国总统提名,并需获得参议院的确认6。为强保独立性,理事的任期为14年,且任期交错安 排,每两年有一个任期开始7.理事会的主属(Chair)和副主属(Vicc Chair)同样由总统从 理事中提名,任期四年,可连任8. 联邦储备银行(Reserve Banks): 美国被划分为12个联邦情备区,每个区设有一家主要的联邦储备银行,共同构成一个覆盖全国的网络

1.这些地方储备银行的行长白各自很行的B类和c类盖事(非银行界代表)任命,但最终任命须经联

邦储备委员会批准11.这一设计目在将地方经济的跟点和声音带入全国性的政策讨论中1。 联邦公开市场要员会(Federal Open Market Committee。FoMC): FOMC是美联储系统中最重要的货币政策制定机构1.其主要职责是通过公开市场操作(open marketcperations)等工具来影响利率和货币供给,以实现国会予的“最大化就业“和“稳定 精价*的双重使合(dualmandate)15。 FOMC的投票权结构如下17:

• 总共12名投票委员。

• 8名永久投票委员:包括联邦储备委员会的全部7名理事,以及纽约联邦储备银行的行

长(按惯例担任FOMC副主席)6。

• 4名轮值投票委员:由其余11家地方储备银行的行长轮流担任,任期为一年17。轮换

机制遵循特定的分组安排,以确保各地区都有代表机会1"。 值得注意的是,即使在没有投票权的年份,所有12家地方储备银行的行长也都会参加F0MC会 议,参与讨论并提供对经济和政策选项的评估,为最终决策贡献重要的地区视角15。

2025年F0MC投票委员立场光谱 2025年的FOMC面临着因新政府贸易和关税政策而产生的重大经济不确定性,这导致委员会内 部在如何应对其对通账和增长的影响上出现根本分岐2。这种分歧已在主张采取“wa1t and-see"态度的成员与呼呼先发制人降息(preemptiverate cuts)的成员之间划出 了一条清晰的界线2。下表综合了每位成员的背景、立场及其核心理由。 立场核心重动因囊[Core Driver 背景管介 成员姓 定性立场 职位 282 5年 (Qual1t 名 of 5tance) ative S tance) 权 Jeron 法律与投资银行背 务实中间 面对关税等巨大不确定性,采取谨情 主席 永 景,非经济学博土出 派(Prag 州影基 ,9es-pue-Ten, 8 H. 久 电 身,以务实和建立共 路,以维护政策灵活性和美联强的雅 Powel 换 natic C 立性7 识著称 entris t) 在dual mandate中更领向于保护 资课劳动经济学家, 平衡中间 Phili 副主 录 学术研究聚集于贫图 N. 就业,反对可能导致经济衰遇的过度 久 派(Bala P 和不平等问鼠3 ncedCe 紧终,是双重使命的坚定得卫者 Jeffe rson ntrist) 其Sr$s理论框买表明长期利率价 John 纽约 永 本出的研究型经济学 理论性熊 C. W1 联储 久 低,意味着当前政策比表面上重具题 家,其关于r(中 派(Theo 制性,为鸽该立场捷供了理论依操2 retical 1lian 行长 性利率)的权威研究 是现代货币政莱的基 Dove) 石之一 3E Chris 认为美联储已重建其抗通账情售,因 录 黄币理论和政治经济 战术性鸽 理事 派(Tact 此有能力“看穿“关税等一次性价格冲 久 学领域的学术激经济 学家,曾是坚定的愿 ,应先发制人等息以保护就业 J. 1calDo Walle ve) 4. 转向中的 曾是委员会最毕定的度语,但近期基 Miche 负责 捐有社区银行家和州 永 监管 lle 于通胀受控和经济可能定弱的实地现 久 银行监理官经验。是 鹰派(Pi voting w. Bo 察,意外地弱向支持降惠,信号意文 的副 Hask1 重大29 主席 区银行所位“代表 wnan 稳定派编 Micha 理事 Dodd-Frank 法 优先考虑金慰稳定,担心过紧的政质 永 派(Stab els. 久 可能引发值贷危机,其代价高于轻微 案}的关键设计师, 的通账超误2 Barr 在金融监管领域拥有 ility-f ocused Dove) Lisa 开创性地研究歧视与 包容性鸽 其研究表明, 个“高压 (high-pr 理事 永 essure}“的劳动力市场能有效弥合 派(Incl D. Co 久 暴力对经济创新的机 usive D 历史性的种族和性别差距,因此频向 ok 换 别作用,是首位在理 于优先考虚就业量大化79 事会任职的非容美围 (aA0 女性1 数据驱动 作为劳动和国际经济专家,地对关税 Adria 劳动经济学家,提有 理事 na b. 和移民等供给侧冲击的复杂影墙持中 在世界银行和美国劳 中间派(D 久 工部的任职经历,是 ata-dri 立态度,其决爽将严格性据效提清 Kugle ven 理事会首位拉丁商成 累 trist) 前自官经济题问委员 结构性鸽 Austa 芝加 轮 会主属,芝加哥大学 派(Stru 动,随着供给修复,通胀可在不引发 nD. 佰 ctural 衰退的情况下应筹(“黄金路径(00 G0ols 储行 知名教授,以实证和 微观数据分析名称 Lden path)“理论), 长 Dove1 bee 波士 国际宏观经济学家, 提出“积薇耐心(active patien Susan 陈 耐心中间 顿联 Ce)“整架,在关税不确定性下保持 H. Co 拥有在图致根大学担 派(Pati 佰 entCen 政策稳定,但为数据变化时采取行动 储行 1lins 任教务长和院长的学 术管理经输 保留了期磺的条件2 长 trist) 在国际货币基金细织和宏双对冲基会 Alber 圣路 轮 拥有在IHF和宏现对 市场鹰源 (Market 易斯 的经历便能深知通胀预期失错的危 to6. 佰 冲基金(郁锋投资) 的丰富市场授装 害,对任阅可能动播信登的风险都保 Husal 联储 Hamk) 持高度情29 行长 en 职业银行家和前银行 Jeffr 作为资深银行家,他最担心的是公众 轮 心理学度 监管者,拥有数十年 斯模 “崭的定价心理(fragile pric 派(Psyc ey R. 值 hoLogy 的银行一线管理经 Schmi 联储 e-setting psychologyl*,认 72 Hask] 行长 为新一轮价格冲击可能永久改变通胀 累 P 预期,因此主张保持谨慎25 Works cited

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Market:目录= <上一篇·Robinhood的蜕变:金融科技与加密货币领域战略扩张分析

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